For the long-term investor, periods of volatility and pullbacks typically happen every year, with the average yearly drawdown over the last decade being -13% and lasting about 70 days. Despite these drawdowns, full calendar year returns for the S&P 500 have either been positive or significantly higher, as recoveries tend to occur swiftly after a drawdown. With GIR’s recession probability a close coin flip (45%), we believe investors stand to benefit from portfolios that are built to hedge against risk but are not excluded from potential upside.
Pullback Problem
