Tariff Talk Returns, Volatility Close Behind

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Stocks were mixed last week as investor concerns over inflation and trade policy combined to produce another volatile trading week. 

The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 0.95 percent, while the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index lost 0.98 percent. Meanwhile, the tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite Index dropped an eye-catching 3.47 percent. The MSCI EAFE Index, which tracks developed overseas stock markets, lost 1.03 percent.^1,2

Trade Talk

The week began under pressure after the White House said 25 percent tariffs on Mexico and Canada would begin after the 30-day pause ends in early March. 

On Tuesday, S&P and Nasdaq stocks continued their slide on news that consumer confidence weakened more than expected. Concerns about inflation and tariffs merged with investors fretting over economic growth and global trade. It was the fourth straight day of declines for the S&P 500 and Nasdaq. The Dow, however, advanced for its third consecutive session.^3,4

After a quiet Wednesday, stock fell broadly on Thursday after the White House announced additional tariffs on goods from China and Europe. A large chipmaker prominent in artificial intelligence (AI) matters produced a mixed corporate report for Q4, which put some pressure on the broader market.^5,6

Friday’s news that inflation moderated boosted stocks, with prices accelerating higher into the close of trading. The Fed’s favorite core inflation measure hit 2.6 percent in January, which aligns with forecasts.⁷

Getting a Read on Tariffs

Markets dislike uncertainty, so steady trade talk produces volatile intra-week trading. Investors don’t know what tariffs will be enforced versus which ones are part of an ongoing negotiation, which can produce unsettling price swings. 

S&P 500 companies echo some of that uncertainty. At last check, 146 have mentioned the term “tariff” or “tariffs” on Q4 conference calls with shareholders–the highest level since Q2 2019.⁸

This Week: Key Economic Data

Monday:  ISM Manufacturing. Construction Spending.

Tuesday:  Auto Sales. New York Fed President Williams speaks.

Wednesday:  ADP Employment Report. Factory Orders. ISM Services Index.

Thursday:  Productivity. Trade Deficit. Wholesale Inventories.

Friday:  Employment Situation. Consumer Credit. New York Fed President Williams speaks.

^{Source: Investors Business Daily - Econoday economic calendar; February 27, 2025
The Econoday economic calendar lists upcoming U.S. economic data releases (including key economic indicators), Federal Reserve policy meetings, and speaking engagements of Federal Reserve officials. The content is developed from sources believed to be providing accurate information. The forecasts or forward-looking statements are based on assumptions and may not materialize. The forecasts also are subject to revision.}

This Week: Companies Reporting Earnings

Tuesday:  CrowdStrike (CRWD), Target Corporation (TGT), AutoZone, Inc. (AZO)

Wednesday:  Marvell Technology, Inc. (MRVL)

Thursday:  Broadcom Inc. (AVGO), Costco Wholesale Corporation (COST)

^{Source: Zacks, February 27, 2025. Companies mentioned are for informational purposes only. It should not be considered a solicitation for the purchase or sale of the securities. Investing involves risks, and investment decisions should be based on your own goals, time horizon, and tolerance for risk. The return and principal value of investments will fluctuate as market conditions change. When sold, investments may be worth more or less than their original cost. Companies may reschedule when they report earnings without notice.}

“Only a life lived for others is a life worthwhile."

–Albert Einstein

Long ago, the Storm Queen’s dreams stirred fierce March winds, bringing endless tempests. Fearing ruin, the people sought help from the swift and clever March Hare.

“I will steal her crown,” he declared, “and she will sleep peacefully once more.”

Braving the raging winds, the hare reached the highest hill where theTempest Crownrested. With a daring leap, he snatched it and fled, hiding it deep in the roots of the oldest oak. The storms calmed, and the queen drifted back into slumber.

Each March, she stirs, sending restless winds, but the hare still runs, guarding the crown and keeping spring’s promise.

March is a great month to embrace seasonal ingredients like root vegetables, cabbage, leeks, and spring greens. A wonderful dish for this time of year is aSt. Patrick’s Day-inspired Irish Beef Stew, which combines hearty beef with root vegetables, making it a warming, comforting meal. Here’s a recipe to try:

Irish Beef Stew Recipe

Ingredients:

• 2 lbs (900g) beef stew meat (chuck roast or similar), cut into cubes
• 2 tablespoons olive oil
• 1 onion, chopped
• 3 cloves garlic, minced
• 3 large carrots, peeled and sliced
• 3 large potatoes, peeled and diced
• 2 parsnips, peeled and sliced (optional)
• 2 cups beef broth
• 1 cup Guinness beer (or any stout)
• 2 tablespoons tomato paste
• 2 tablespoons Worcestershire sauce
• 1 teaspoon dried thyme
• 1 teaspoon dried rosemary
• 1 bay leaf
• Salt and pepper to taste
• Fresh parsley, chopped (for garnish)

Instructions:

1. Brown the Beef:

   • Heat olive oil in a large pot over medium-high heat. Add the beef in batches and brown it on all sides. Remove and set aside.

2. Sauté Aromatics:

   • In the same pot, add the chopped onion and garlic. Sauté for about 3-4 minutes until softened.

3. Add Liquids and Seasonings:

   • Stir in the tomato paste, Worcestershire sauce, and thyme. Add the Guinness beer and beef broth, scraping any browned bits from the bottom of the pot.

4. Simmer the Stew:

   • Return the browned beef to the pot. Add the carrots, potatoes, parsnips, rosemary, and bay leaf. Bring to a boil, then reduce the heat and let it simmer for about 1.5 to 2 hours, until the beef is tender and the vegetables are cooked through. Season with salt and pepper to taste.

5. Serve:

   • Remove the bay leaf and discard it. Serve the stew hot, garnished with fresh parsley.

Don’t Forget to Check Your Withholding

When was the last time you checked your tax withholding? Having the correct amount of tax withheld from your wages is part of managing your taxes. The amount you withhold depends on your income, the number of children you claim on your return, and more. 

The IRS has a helpful tool on their site called their Tax Withholding Estimator that can help you know if you have too much or too little tax withheld from your wages. Before using the tool, have all your paperwork handy, including your W2, 1099, 1095-A, and 1099-NEC, and any other forms to determine how much your income is taxable.

This information is not a substitute for individualized tax advice. Please discuss your specific tax issues with a qualified tax professional.

Tip adapted from IRS⁹

What is Foam Rolling?

Exercise is super important for our overall health, but so is recovery. Foam rollers are a popular recovery tool because they help release tension in tight, tired muscles.

Foam rollers are large cylinders made from high-density foam. They come in different sizes and firmness levels and can massage large and smaller muscle groups. You can use the foam roller before or after a workout, depending on your needs.

You can do countless foam rolling exercises for sore muscles, including rolling out your hamstrings, quads, upper back, lower back, IT band, triceps, forearm, and more.

Tip adapted from WebMD¹⁰

Lidia immediately went bankrupt after the car she was pushing around stopped in front of a hotel. It sounds sad, but she wasn’t upset. What was she doing?

Last week’s riddle: I have rosy cheeks, I am round and cute – yet debate persists over whether I am vegetable or fruit. What might I be?
Answer: A tomato.

Arashiyama Bamboo Forest
Kyoto, Japan

Footnotes and Sources

^{1. The Wall Street Journal, February 28, 2025}

^{2. Investing.com, February 28, 2025}

^{3. CNBC.com, February 25, 2025}

^{4. MarketWatch.com, February 25, 2025}

^{5. CNBC.com, February 26, 2025}

^{6. CNBC.com, February 27, 2025}

^{7. The Wall Street Journal, February 28, 2025}

^{8. Insight.FactSet.com, February 10, 2025}

^{9. IRS.gov, January 30, 2024}

^{10.WebMD, October 3, 2024}