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Investors Read Inflation Risk in Job Numbers

Investors Read Inflation Risk in Job Numbers

January 14, 2025

Last Friday is referred to by same as“NationalQuitter’s Day”,and as such I thought I would share the following article by Charles Duhigg, author of“The Power of Habit”.

 Alongside these references, I’d like to share three ideas that may help you “stay the course” with your New Year’s Resolutions.

  1. Get a buddy.

Accountability is a thing.  If I know someone is depending on me, or I’ve committed to someone else, it is substantially harder to not follow through.  A great scripture that underscores this isEcclesiastes 4:9-12“Two are better than one”…

  1. Identify a Pivot Point.

As Mr.  Duhigg points out in his book “The Power of Habit”, there are certain habits that he calls “Keystone Habits”.  Duhigg defines these as“a process that, over time, transforms everything. If you want to master your habits, you must first identify the ones that, when they start to shift, dislodge and remake other patterns”*.

By identifying these habits and creating an environment where you MUST take those first steps, you can increase your opportunity for achieving your resolution(s).

  1. Create small victories and celebrate them!

"The journey of a thousand miles begins with a single step."- Lao Tzu.  If my resolution were to run a marathon, I’m pretty sure I would crash and burn if I tried to go the entire length on my first effort.  I would start small and (if I’m following suggestion # 1 above) I would get a buddy to help me along the way.  I would make celebrating so enjoyablethat the desire to celebrate that joy (with my Buddy) would overshadow the pain of the effort.

Here's wishing you much success and prosperity for the coming year!

Edwin A. McKnight

*Swiftread. Summary & Analysis: The Power Of Habit by Charles Duhigg - More knowledge in less time (p. 11). Kindle Edition.

Join us on Thursday, February 6, 2025, from 5:30 PM to 6:30 PM CST at Murfreesboro Medical Clinic Westlawn for an enlightening Medicare educational event. Led by Medicare Solutions Specialist Hillary Broome, this session will provide expert insights into Medicare Parts A, B, C, and D, offer enrollment guidance, and include a personalized Q&A segment. Whether you're approaching eligibility, currently enrolled, or assisting a loved one, this event will help you navigate Medicare with confidence. Refreshments will be provided. Seats are limited.

Click here to register for the event.

Stocks fell for the second consecutive week as a round of fresh economic data stoked inflationary fears among investors.

The Standard & Poor’s 500 Index declined 1.94 percent, while the Nasdaq Composite Index dropped 2.34 percent. The Dow Jones Industrial Average lost 1.86 percent. The MSCI EAFE Index, which tracks developed overseas stock markets, slipped 0.49 percent.1,2

Inflation Stymies Markets

Stocks rallied broadly to start the week, but two economic reports on Tuesday—job openings and the prices-paid index among service companies—raised fresh inflation concerns. Higher Treasury yields also put pressure on stocks.3,4

Stocks flattened out on Wednesday. Investors reacted to news that most Federal Open Market Committee members agreed inflation risks had increased, per minutes from the Fed’s December meeting.5,6

U.S. stock markets were closed Thursday in observance of President Jimmy Carter’s funeral.

On Friday, a warmer-than-expected December jobs report caused investors to question whether the Fed will adjust rates in 2025. News that consumer sentiment ticked down also pushed stocks lower.7

Tech giants ratchet up spending in AI race

Tech giants are significantly increasing their capital expenditures to advance artificial intelligence (AI) capabilities. Companies like Alphabet (Google) and Meta are leading foundational AI research, investing tens of billions of dollars to develop AI models and build cloud-hosted infrastructure for AI enterprises. In 2024, four major technology companies are projected to account for 21% of the total capital expenditures in the S&P 500 Index, a substantial increase from 4% a decade ago. Over the next three years, these companies are estimated to spend $500 billion as the AI race intensifies.

Click here to read the full story.

When Good Becomes Bad News

The economy added 256,000 jobs in December—100,000 more than economists expected. That’s the second-highest monthly job gain for 2024. Unemployment ticked down to 4.1 percent, which was also better than anticipated.

Job growth and lower unemployment signals good news for the economy but bad news for the markets. A stronger jobs market puts less pressure on the Fed to adjust rates, especially with inflation top-of-mind among investors.
8,9

This Week: Key Economic Data

Monday:Treasury Statement.

Tuesday:Producer Price Index. Fed officials Jeffrey Schmid and John Williams speak.

Wednesday:Consumer Price Index. Fed officials Thomas Barkin, Neel Kashkari, John Williams, and Austan Goolsbee speak. Fed Beige Book.

Thursday:Retail Sales. Import and Export Prices. Business Inventories. Homebuilder Confidence Index.

Friday:Housing Starts and Permits. Industrial Production.

Source: Investors Business Daily - Econoday economic calendar; January 9, 2025
The Econoday economic calendar lists upcoming U.S. economic data releases (including key economic indicators), Federal Reserve policy meetings, and speaking engagements of Federal Reserve officials. The content is developed from sources believed to be providing accurate information. The forecasts or forward-looking statements are based on assumptions and may not materialize. The forecasts also are subject to revision.

This Week: Companies Reporting Earnings

Wednesday:JPMorgan Chase & Co. (JPM), Wells Fargo & Company (WFC), BlackRock, Inc. (BLK), Citigroup Inc. (C), The Charles Schwab Corporation (SCHW)

Thursday:UnitedHealth Group Incorporated (UNH), Bank of America Corporation (BAC), Morgan Stanley (MS)

Source: Zacks,January 9, 2025. Companies mentioned are for informational purposes only. It should not be considered a solicitation for the purchase or sale of the securities. Investing involves risks, and investment decisions should be based on your own goals, time horizon, and tolerance for risk. The return and principal value of investments will fluctuate as market conditions change. When sold, investments may be worth more or less than their original cost. Companies may reschedule when they report earnings without notice.

“The very least you can do in your life is to figure out what you hope for. And the most you can do is live inside that hope. Not admire it from a distance but live right in it, under its roof.

– Barbara Kingsolver

A recent study suggests that regular coffee consumption may help protect cognitive function in individuals with atrial fibrillation (AFib). Researchers found that AFib patients who drank one or more cups of coffee daily exhibited better cognitive performance compared to non-coffee drinkers. The study highlights coffee's potential neuroprotective effects, though further research is needed to fully understand the relationship between caffeine intake and cognitive health in AFib patients.

Click here to learn more

Self-Employed Tax Obligations

There are a few tax considerations to consider when you work for yourself. Generally, you’re required to file and pay estimated taxes during the year.

  • Make quarterly payments if you’ve determined you need to use Form 11040-ES.
  • Filing annually: If you’re filing annually, you must use Schedule C to report income or loss. To file your Social Security and Medicare taxes, you should file Schedule SE Form 1040.
  • Deductions: If you’re using part of your home for business, you may be able to make certain deductions, such as for your office or a portion of your home’s square footage used for business purposes.

This information is not a substitute for individualized tax advice. Please discuss your specific tax issues with a qualified tax professional.

Tip adapted fromIRS10

Restorative Yoga: Long and Easy Stretching

Whether you have been curious about yoga but have never tried it, or if you're a seasoned yogi looking for something new, restorative yoga has something for everyone. This gentle yoga uses props like blocks, blankets, and straps. Stretches and poses are held for a longer time, yielding many benefits. Here are a few ways that restorative yoga can be beneficial for many people:

  • It can help with neck, lower back, hip, and shoulder pain
  • It can help with insomnia
  • All ages widely practice it, and modifications are available
  • It can relax the mind and help with anxiety
  • It may help to cope with serious illnesses and life events
  • It may improve respiratory and circulatory function

Check your local yoga studios or gyms to enroll in a restorative yoga class. If you can’t find one, there are online yoga courses you can try. It might be a stretch worth taking (ask your doctor if yoga might be right for you).

Tip adapted from Mindbodygreen.com11

Dave is at the hardware store to buy something for his house. Yesterday, he bought 1 for $1. The week before, he purchased 10 for $2, and his friend bought 100 for $3. Today, he bought 907 for $3. If the prices haven’t changed, how is this possible?

Last week’s riddle: David put on a white shirt with three large holes in it and went to the grocery store. No one gave him a funny look; no one objected to it. What kind of shirt was David wearing? Answer: A white t-shirt (the holes were the collar and sleeves of the shirt)

Surprise Glacier

Prince William Sound, Alaska


Footnotes and Sources

1. The Wall Street Journal, January 10, 2025

2. Investing.com, January 10, 2025

3. CNBC.com, January 6, 2025

4. The Wall Street Journal, January 7, 2025

5. CNBC.com, January 8, 2025

6. MarketWatch.com, January 8, 2025

7. CNBC.com, January 10, 2025

8. The Wall Street Journal, January 10, 2025

9. TradingEconomics.com, January 10, 2025

10. IRS.gov, September 30, 2024

11. Mindbodygreen.com, October 3, 2024